After a year of rapid heating in rhetoric with Russia, thought perhaps it might be time to get a discussion going about preparedness in the face of nuclear conflict. A couple of topics might include what an attack might look like and what your plan includes. Kind of thinking in terms of what an immediate need (up to a month after attack), intermediate stabilization (up to a year), and sustainable life (over a year) would look like for everyone. I'm hoping to inspire some discussion and thought to help everyone plan for this disaster.
Google cold war preps.
There wasn't any internet then, but many thousands of people built fall out shelters, schools had drills for kids, entire cities and states had civil defense shelters with non perishable foods stockpiled. Some with enough food/water to feed 30,000 people for up to a year.
There wasn't any internet then, but many thousands of people built fall out shelters, schools had drills for kids, entire cities and states had civil defense shelters with non perishable foods stockpiled. Some with enough food/water to feed 30,000 people for up to a year.
Served during the cold war, and was forced to train and consider what happens after a strike. Hope you are deep underground with enough supplies to not come up for a long time, or that you are so far away and in the same condition, otherwise, I highly suspect to not have to worry about it long. No zombies, just people dying of extremelly high doses of radiation poisoning, for those still alive near a strike.
I remember the 70s and 80s when the cold war hit its peak but don't really remember the average Joe being that concerned about it. But what I'm really after is what the folks here are thinking when/if they think about surviving a wwiii environment. I'll start when what I'm thinking...
I do believe that the US "no first use" policy for nuclear weapons stands. I do not foresee a scenario that we will launch a preemptive nuclear strike in the near term so I feel like if we face nuclear war, Russia will shoot first. This could take two forms, a massive attack or a more limited attack with a call for surrender designed to prevent a retalitory strike. In either case, it's important to remember that Russia has put great effort toward tactical nuclear weapons which leads me to believe they are at least as good as we are at miniaturization. If Russia is responding to paranoia they will be using well know weapon systems. If they decide to plan an execute it because they believe it necessary, they might use more asymetric means such as launching standoff weapons against coastal targets from cargo ships, etc. The later is a little beyond the scope of this post so I'll draw out the former.
Russian leadership decided they need to hit us because they believe we are about to hit them. If it were me, I would launch the attack early in the morning to maximize the element of surprise. This also has the advantage of most Russian cities being in the bright light of day when the attack begins. This means most of the US will be asleep and most of Russia will be awake so the military and citizans will seek shelter much more quickly thereby minimizing losses. I would start with submarine launched cruise missles against strategically important coastal cities including leadership cities. If I am starting the attack, I have the advantage of choosing when to shoot which means I would look for time when the majority of US leadership is in one place. Using cruise missles means it's possible to push the attack through without being detected until I am a few minutes out from the coast.
Once the missles are approaching their targets, I would launch against ICBM fields and militarily important bases housing alert facilities. I know my bomber fleet is old and easily detectable so I would not launch them until the SLBM strike. The idea with them is mopup missions using cruise missles. Also, keeping them off an alert posture helps prevent suspisions. Europe would be peppered with the intermediate range nuclear missles I'm not supposed to have. I'm positioning my fighter and refueling assets a bit inland from my boarder right now to repel NATO bombers and attack aircraft. I've also got an array of S300/S400 and some S500 missles along my borders as well as vertical radar to detect remaining enemy aircraft.
A lot more to this story but I estimate in a best case scenario, destroy most of the strategic bases near the coasts. Depending on how far out they saw my cruise missles hugging the ground, they might or might not have the ICBM force getting launch orders. If I get the leadership and strategic bases near the coasts, this will open up the defenses a bit for the second SLBM strike. The US densepacked their ICBMs which means I'm going to target my MIRV weapons to hit far silos with simaltanious weapons and walk back to the nearest from there. This will allow the greatest amount of impacts without fear of airborne dust affesting followon stricks. The surprise hits in Washington have slowed the leadership response to a crawl the nation itself is in chaos. Alert aircraft from interior bases have scrambled. With my remaining SLBMs, I launch against other interior targets balistically such as Tinker, Offutt, Minot, etc.
By now, I'm refueling my bomber fieet to time their arrival away toward their refueling times hoping to catch a few not ready to fight. Fighters are heading into Europe to finish off NATO offensive air craft. The biggest air battle in history is about to commence but if I have position, they will face a wave of S400-500 air defense missles as they approach to engage. I'm not on the phone with whatever leadership I can locate and offering terms of surrender to allow them no further homeland destruction in exchange for their recalling their remaining nuclear forces for which I have little defense. If they pause here, I would have hits on my nation with several major cities destroyed and a number of remote military sites destroyed. Most of my SLBM or cruise missle subs have been sunk which I'm indifferent about because they have exhausted all their weapons and would have to come back for refill and bases that have been hit in small retailiations by secondary powers like France and Britan who have about 300 missles each. I'm really worried about those OHIO class subs and their 24 each SLBMs and what remains of the their ICBM force. I am less worried about the bombers since they won't be here for hours. I offer my ultimatium as I tell my ICBM commanders to prepare to launch. I should have about 100 missles left with 1-3 warheads each. Ultimatium is rejected and one of my few remaining satellites reports launch detections in the northern us ICBM bases.
At this point, I commit everything. I order all of my rocket based platforms to launch and bomber fleets to link up with their refueling and fighter escorts and head into Europe to mop up and to the US to go city busting. I get about another 300 detonations in trade for about 500 from US missles and subs. They are hitting my major cities and all strategic faciltities such as gas/oil/manufacturing. This will hurt but with an hour + to clear people, many are clear of the impact zones and my preplanned recovery teams are putting together camps to provide for the displaced and wounded. I've lost about 50% of my industrial capacity and about 20% of my population. No problem, the remaining assets and people are spread out and immediately resettle safe zone areas where we've relocated some facilities to produce post ware needs and provde protection. I've got lots of space.
My bombers follow on with some mopup and city busting. I loose most but many get their cruise missles out and there just aren't enough fighters to chase every bomber and every cruise missle. In the end, the US looses 90% of its industrial capacity and 60% of the population. Those that remain are smaller cities and larger towns surrounded by rural populations which will suffer from fallout, and supply shortages making them all but ineffective. There are few if any safe zones where people could relocate to and expect to lead healthy productive lives. The population will decline to 20% before stabilizing.
Given all that, seems pretty dire but it's not unmanagable. First, this is a best case scenario where Russians using their latest weapons achive total surprise and manage to create enough disarray that it slows our response. Chances are that we will get to execute our retaliation plan and the Russians will feel a similar impact to their country as we do to ours. Whatever the case may be, this is how I think about the possibility of a Russian attack and prepare for it under those terms.
I work in the city but live outside of it. I think it's obvious that Tinker would be toward the top of a list of Russian targets. If I broke my plans into those three categories above, it would look something like this:
1. Immediate Survival.
A. Get home, get shelter. -
a. Depending on where I am when the alert comes in will dictate what I do next. If I'm at work, I've got a few routes planned to get home that take me away from what I expect to be the immediate impact zones. I honestly don't think EMP is going to be this instant dark ages thing that everyone sees on TV, especially for something as small as a car. But if I'm wrong, I keep some basic supplies, protection with me all the time. This is intended to give me enough basics to cover whatever remaining miles are left if I have to hoof it the rest of the way home.
b. I expect a Russian first strike will come early in the morning. Chances are I will be home which means I roll to the tornado shelter. If already got essentials down there ready for a short term bug in. I need to add a radiation meter of some kind so I can make the stay/go question. I would much rather bug in but I am still close enough that we might see survivors walking out of the city. . Defend/recruite as needed but stay under ground and alert to intruders and the gama detection capability.
So first question is for section 1, what am I missing. I've got some food, water, batteries and a radio, ammo/guns reliable for this kind of work. Have a slightly better than rudimentary medical supplies with extras of perscriptions and things like this. Have a couple 10/11m radios for emergancy comms. Getting tired so I will leave it there. What else should I consider?
I do believe that the US "no first use" policy for nuclear weapons stands. I do not foresee a scenario that we will launch a preemptive nuclear strike in the near term so I feel like if we face nuclear war, Russia will shoot first. This could take two forms, a massive attack or a more limited attack with a call for surrender designed to prevent a retalitory strike. In either case, it's important to remember that Russia has put great effort toward tactical nuclear weapons which leads me to believe they are at least as good as we are at miniaturization. If Russia is responding to paranoia they will be using well know weapon systems. If they decide to plan an execute it because they believe it necessary, they might use more asymetric means such as launching standoff weapons against coastal targets from cargo ships, etc. The later is a little beyond the scope of this post so I'll draw out the former.
Russian leadership decided they need to hit us because they believe we are about to hit them. If it were me, I would launch the attack early in the morning to maximize the element of surprise. This also has the advantage of most Russian cities being in the bright light of day when the attack begins. This means most of the US will be asleep and most of Russia will be awake so the military and citizans will seek shelter much more quickly thereby minimizing losses. I would start with submarine launched cruise missles against strategically important coastal cities including leadership cities. If I am starting the attack, I have the advantage of choosing when to shoot which means I would look for time when the majority of US leadership is in one place. Using cruise missles means it's possible to push the attack through without being detected until I am a few minutes out from the coast.
Once the missles are approaching their targets, I would launch against ICBM fields and militarily important bases housing alert facilities. I know my bomber fleet is old and easily detectable so I would not launch them until the SLBM strike. The idea with them is mopup missions using cruise missles. Also, keeping them off an alert posture helps prevent suspisions. Europe would be peppered with the intermediate range nuclear missles I'm not supposed to have. I'm positioning my fighter and refueling assets a bit inland from my boarder right now to repel NATO bombers and attack aircraft. I've also got an array of S300/S400 and some S500 missles along my borders as well as vertical radar to detect remaining enemy aircraft.
A lot more to this story but I estimate in a best case scenario, destroy most of the strategic bases near the coasts. Depending on how far out they saw my cruise missles hugging the ground, they might or might not have the ICBM force getting launch orders. If I get the leadership and strategic bases near the coasts, this will open up the defenses a bit for the second SLBM strike. The US densepacked their ICBMs which means I'm going to target my MIRV weapons to hit far silos with simaltanious weapons and walk back to the nearest from there. This will allow the greatest amount of impacts without fear of airborne dust affesting followon stricks. The surprise hits in Washington have slowed the leadership response to a crawl the nation itself is in chaos. Alert aircraft from interior bases have scrambled. With my remaining SLBMs, I launch against other interior targets balistically such as Tinker, Offutt, Minot, etc.
By now, I'm refueling my bomber fieet to time their arrival away toward their refueling times hoping to catch a few not ready to fight. Fighters are heading into Europe to finish off NATO offensive air craft. The biggest air battle in history is about to commence but if I have position, they will face a wave of S400-500 air defense missles as they approach to engage. I'm not on the phone with whatever leadership I can locate and offering terms of surrender to allow them no further homeland destruction in exchange for their recalling their remaining nuclear forces for which I have little defense. If they pause here, I would have hits on my nation with several major cities destroyed and a number of remote military sites destroyed. Most of my SLBM or cruise missle subs have been sunk which I'm indifferent about because they have exhausted all their weapons and would have to come back for refill and bases that have been hit in small retailiations by secondary powers like France and Britan who have about 300 missles each. I'm really worried about those OHIO class subs and their 24 each SLBMs and what remains of the their ICBM force. I am less worried about the bombers since they won't be here for hours. I offer my ultimatium as I tell my ICBM commanders to prepare to launch. I should have about 100 missles left with 1-3 warheads each. Ultimatium is rejected and one of my few remaining satellites reports launch detections in the northern us ICBM bases.
At this point, I commit everything. I order all of my rocket based platforms to launch and bomber fleets to link up with their refueling and fighter escorts and head into Europe to mop up and to the US to go city busting. I get about another 300 detonations in trade for about 500 from US missles and subs. They are hitting my major cities and all strategic faciltities such as gas/oil/manufacturing. This will hurt but with an hour + to clear people, many are clear of the impact zones and my preplanned recovery teams are putting together camps to provide for the displaced and wounded. I've lost about 50% of my industrial capacity and about 20% of my population. No problem, the remaining assets and people are spread out and immediately resettle safe zone areas where we've relocated some facilities to produce post ware needs and provde protection. I've got lots of space.
My bombers follow on with some mopup and city busting. I loose most but many get their cruise missles out and there just aren't enough fighters to chase every bomber and every cruise missle. In the end, the US looses 90% of its industrial capacity and 60% of the population. Those that remain are smaller cities and larger towns surrounded by rural populations which will suffer from fallout, and supply shortages making them all but ineffective. There are few if any safe zones where people could relocate to and expect to lead healthy productive lives. The population will decline to 20% before stabilizing.
Given all that, seems pretty dire but it's not unmanagable. First, this is a best case scenario where Russians using their latest weapons achive total surprise and manage to create enough disarray that it slows our response. Chances are that we will get to execute our retaliation plan and the Russians will feel a similar impact to their country as we do to ours. Whatever the case may be, this is how I think about the possibility of a Russian attack and prepare for it under those terms.
I work in the city but live outside of it. I think it's obvious that Tinker would be toward the top of a list of Russian targets. If I broke my plans into those three categories above, it would look something like this:
1. Immediate Survival.
A. Get home, get shelter. -
a. Depending on where I am when the alert comes in will dictate what I do next. If I'm at work, I've got a few routes planned to get home that take me away from what I expect to be the immediate impact zones. I honestly don't think EMP is going to be this instant dark ages thing that everyone sees on TV, especially for something as small as a car. But if I'm wrong, I keep some basic supplies, protection with me all the time. This is intended to give me enough basics to cover whatever remaining miles are left if I have to hoof it the rest of the way home.
b. I expect a Russian first strike will come early in the morning. Chances are I will be home which means I roll to the tornado shelter. If already got essentials down there ready for a short term bug in. I need to add a radiation meter of some kind so I can make the stay/go question. I would much rather bug in but I am still close enough that we might see survivors walking out of the city. . Defend/recruite as needed but stay under ground and alert to intruders and the gama detection capability.
So first question is for section 1, what am I missing. I've got some food, water, batteries and a radio, ammo/guns reliable for this kind of work. Have a slightly better than rudimentary medical supplies with extras of perscriptions and things like this. Have a couple 10/11m radios for emergancy comms. Getting tired so I will leave it there. What else should I consider?
This is kind of cool. You can select the targets, war heads and tonnage and it predicts fall out patterns based on prevailing wind and intensity. Give half life data etc.
Not a bad way to waste a few minutes....
http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Not a bad way to waste a few minutes....
http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Most of the scare ware sites are making you think you need massive anti-radiation meds. About the only easily available anti rad medicine is the Potassium Iodide tablets or liquid. Do some research before you stock up on those, they only protect the thyroid gland from absorbing radioactive iodine. They thyroid Will only hold so much iodine, so the thought is that if there is Radiioactive Iodine in the fallout, taking a dose of Potassium Iodide will saturate the thyroid and keep it from accepting any of the glowing stuff. It normally comes in 65mg and 130 mg dose tablets, and the good old USG recomments a single dose of 130MG for an adult. You can go here http://emergency.cdc.gov/radiation/ki.asp to find out what they have to say about it. Here is the recommended dosage:
According to the FDA, the following doses are appropriate to take after internal contamination with (or likely internal contamination with) radioactive iodine:
Newborns from birth to 1 month of age should be given 16 mg (¼ of a 65 mg tablet or ¼ mL of solution). This dose is for both nursing and non-nursing newborn infants.
Infants and children between 1 month and 3 years of age should take 32 mg (½ of a 65 mg tablet OR ½ mL of solution). This dose is for both nursing and non-nursing infants and children.
Children between 3 and 18 years of age should take 65 mg (one 65 mg tablet OR 1 mL of solution). Children who are adult size (greater than or equal to 150 pounds) should take the full adult dose, regardless of their age.
Adults should take 130 mg (one 130 mg tablet OR two 65 mg tablets OR two mL of solution).
Women who are breastfeeding should take the adult dose of 130 mg.
Hope this adds to your prep. Jim
According to the FDA, the following doses are appropriate to take after internal contamination with (or likely internal contamination with) radioactive iodine:
Newborns from birth to 1 month of age should be given 16 mg (¼ of a 65 mg tablet or ¼ mL of solution). This dose is for both nursing and non-nursing newborn infants.
Infants and children between 1 month and 3 years of age should take 32 mg (½ of a 65 mg tablet OR ½ mL of solution). This dose is for both nursing and non-nursing infants and children.
Children between 3 and 18 years of age should take 65 mg (one 65 mg tablet OR 1 mL of solution). Children who are adult size (greater than or equal to 150 pounds) should take the full adult dose, regardless of their age.
Adults should take 130 mg (one 130 mg tablet OR two 65 mg tablets OR two mL of solution).
Women who are breastfeeding should take the adult dose of 130 mg.
Hope this adds to your prep. Jim
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