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The Water Cooler
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Oklahoma Earthquake Politics
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<blockquote data-quote="DrinkYourMilkshake" data-source="post: 2721275" data-attributes="member: 37041"><p>This will largely be arguing semantics, but correlation is not science. It is in science, but is not science in and of itself. Simply put, correlation does not always imply causation (fart example). </p><p></p><p>As for the rest... I can agree to those terms.</p><p></p><p>As for my own correlation, <a href="http://maps.fractracker.org/latest/?appid=fc88d95485c8423bafee417c26a95782&webmap=aa7f85ff6fb149248df33ba2aae66080" target="_blank">http://maps.fractracker.org/latest/?appid=fc88d95485c8423bafee417c26a95782&webmap=aa7f85ff6fb149248df33ba2aae66080</a></p><p></p><p>Class II well locations vs Shale wells. </p><p></p><p><a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/oklahoma/seismicity.php" target="_blank">http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/oklahoma/seismicity.php</a></p><p></p><p>Seismicity map of Oklahoma.</p><p></p><p>Notice the strong <strong>correlation</strong> between class II wells and seismic activity. This is the reason I have 70% certainty that seismic activity is due to waste water injection. Remaining 30% has more to do with contribution as I truly believe this is a case of converging stresses (reduced lithostatic static pressure/stress due to aquifer depletion, etc, etc ad nauseum).</p><p></p><p>My amended statement on certainty that fracturing cannot cause non-micro seismic activity is because when I made the original statement, I was speaking specifically about Oklahoma and the majority (over 99%) of the seismic activity. I will not deny that fracturing a well that is, basically, on top of a fault could create microseismicity that will in turn trigger/induce "felt" seismic activity.</p><p></p><p>For what it is worth, I have said for a long time that wells in close proximity to faulted structures should not be used for waste water injection.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="DrinkYourMilkshake, post: 2721275, member: 37041"] This will largely be arguing semantics, but correlation is not science. It is in science, but is not science in and of itself. Simply put, correlation does not always imply causation (fart example). As for the rest... I can agree to those terms. As for my own correlation, [url]http://maps.fractracker.org/latest/?appid=fc88d95485c8423bafee417c26a95782&webmap=aa7f85ff6fb149248df33ba2aae66080[/url] Class II well locations vs Shale wells. [url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/oklahoma/seismicity.php[/url] Seismicity map of Oklahoma. Notice the strong [b]correlation[/b] between class II wells and seismic activity. This is the reason I have 70% certainty that seismic activity is due to waste water injection. Remaining 30% has more to do with contribution as I truly believe this is a case of converging stresses (reduced lithostatic static pressure/stress due to aquifer depletion, etc, etc ad nauseum). My amended statement on certainty that fracturing cannot cause non-micro seismic activity is because when I made the original statement, I was speaking specifically about Oklahoma and the majority (over 99%) of the seismic activity. I will not deny that fracturing a well that is, basically, on top of a fault could create microseismicity that will in turn trigger/induce "felt" seismic activity. For what it is worth, I have said for a long time that wells in close proximity to faulted structures should not be used for waste water injection. [/QUOTE]
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