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What's the next war look like?
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<blockquote data-quote="HoLeChit" data-source="post: 4091034" data-attributes="member: 35036"><p>I don't think so either. the isolation of owning a continent with Canada and Mexico has always been our greatest strength, and superpower or not, I believe it would prevent any sort of large scale land invasion, simply due to sheer expense and logistical difficulty faced by any invading force. Even if we had 1/10th of the military capabilities that we currently do, our geographical advantage would still keep us safe from anything conventional, short of strategic weapons.</p><p></p><p>BUT, especially concerning where we are as a nation and as a society at the moment, it wouldn't take a lot of knock the nation off balance and cause it to backpedal. We are HEAVILY dependent on China's imports of manufactured goods and raw materials. We are almost completely dependent on Taiwan's export of technology. We have so much societal and political infighting that we wouldn't be able to pull our heads out of our ***** until an aggressor already achieved much of their goals.</p><p></p><p>China has stated that they will reunify China and Taiwan, I forget when, but I think the deadline set was by 2050. It was explicitly stated that they will do so by political means, and if that fails, they will take it by military force. Looking at china's population growth numbers, they just hit the downhill slide for population growth, which means that they are now shrinking. They should hit their "Peak" of fighting and economic capability sometime between 2027 and 2035, but likely would choose to make something happen earlier, so that they can time the conflict to peak before they start degrading too much.</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/[/URL]</p><p></p><p>While the US is a big influence over the pacific, and between us and our allies, we keep China in relative check out there, we have some biiiig holes in our force projection:</p><p></p><p> Our fleet is aging, and shrinking. This isn't just Joe's fault, its been the fault of several of our previous presidents. According to the most recent congressional report/naval shipbuilding plan, the US navy plans on reducing the number of ships, and "eventually" expanding its missile capability by increasing the number of missiles deployed in the fleet. But we're not doing these things at the same time, we're downgrading right now, and sometime in the next 10 years we're upgrading. We wont be back to 300ish ships until mid 2050s. So between now and 2035ish there's a major lull in US naval firepower and numbers. We're better than China from a military and technology standpoint, but they have a serious numbers advantage. In there lies the problem: a smaller, technologically superior fleet likely won't defeat a much larger fleet: and with the possible the exception of three cases in the past 1,200 years, nobody has.</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chinas-navy-will-be-worlds-largest-2035[/URL]</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58745[/URL]</p><p></p><p>We don't have any long range, conventional strike land based capabilities in the pacific. Yeah, we have SSBN's, carrier strike groups, and aircraft we can deploy all over the world, but we don't have anything that proves to be a set in place, strategic headache to the Chinese. We're one dimensional. Essentially, if they can keep the US from using nuclear weapons, they can stomp around the pacific without any major concerns. Not only do we not have anything in the pacific, but our allies don't want them either.</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-10/pentagon-to-build-up-missiles-in-western-pacific-to-combat-chinas-expansion[/URL]</p><p></p><p>Well, why would we need to worry about that, when we can just cut off the straight of Malacca? Well, realistically we cannot. China has fortified the area through building numerous bases, and establishing relationships with most of the countries in the area, and also has built up massive backup plans to keep goods flowing on land through their silk road initiative.</p><p>(super cool article by the way) <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/08/asia/south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Inside the battle for the South China Sea</a></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/china-new-silk-road-explainer/[/URL]</p><p></p><p>There has been Talk of China aspiring to be the dominant power in the world, unseating the US from its role. it has already worked towards establishing the yen as the currency for oil, and pushes harder to be the leader in economic activity through the world. Without being able to project our nations ideas and values onto the world via economic power, the US will possibly fall by the wayside. Suddenly a US passport isn't the thing to have when travelling, it will be a Chinese passport. I think this is extremely doubtful, and unlikely even if they gain a stranglehold on the oil market through the adoption of the yen, but still.. Interesting thing to consider.</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/what-kind-superpower-will-china-be/616580/[/URL]</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/22/china-has-two-paths-to-global-domination-pub-81908[/URL]</p><p></p><p>A four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, earlier in 2023, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967" target="_blank">predicted</a> the US would be at war with China in two years and told them to get ready to prepare by firing “a clip” at a target and “aim for the head.”</p><p>In a memo, General Minihan said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me (we) will fight in 2025.” Minihan noted in the memo that because Taiwan and the US will have presidential elections in 2024, the US will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-taiwan-us-defense-spending-bill-rcna63221" target="_blank">to move on to Taiwan</a>.</p><p>The poking at our sovereignty has already begun, just look at the Chinese completely ignoring our agreements to reduce cyber attacks, that weather balloon fiasco, or just a few days ago a fleet of Chinese and Russian ships were found off the coast of Alaska.</p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/us-deployed-warships-after-china-russia-naval-patrol-near-alaska-wsj[/URL]</p><p></p><p><strong>What does the all have to do with prepping?!</strong></p><p></p><p></p><p>As a nation, we are vulnerable. We have an opponent who sees that, exploits that, and has goals that we stand in the way of. A small invasion of 30-40,000 militants through our borders and waging a guerilla war on our infrastructure would not only be crippling, but it would inflame the divides we already have in our country. This could tie up manpower resources (military, manufacturing, etc) in trying to keep things together on the home front, thus giving China a larger advantage to accomplish what they desire in the Pacific and Middle East. They don't have to win, they just need the US to go from chasing its tail, to getting kicked around while it is chasing its tail.</p><p></p><p>If this unorthodox invasion were to happen, and 40,000ish recently immigrated Chinese men took up arms within the United States and started raising hell; while the Chinese mainland ramped up cyber attacks on our infrastructure and got pushy in their corner of the pacific, cut off US goods, and retook Taiwan; how would that affect us on the home front? What would you do to prepare? What does that look like for you?</p><p></p><p>Lets say nothing physical happened in our own backyard, and we just had to deal with the usual Chinese Cyberattacks, manufacturing getting cut off, and a war being waged elsewhere in the world. how would that affect us on the home front? What would you do to prepare? What does that look like for you?</p><p></p><p>Last thought that I have, is how would this mimic WWII? Would there be "internment camps"? More persecution of Asian American citizens due to fear? Thoughts on this? I just think of how my buddy is married to a Chinese woman who is a US citizen, and how his wife and kids were threatened and berated in public during Covid, and even followed home. I imagine things would be much worse for people like this in the case of a full blown war.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HoLeChit, post: 4091034, member: 35036"] I don't think so either. the isolation of owning a continent with Canada and Mexico has always been our greatest strength, and superpower or not, I believe it would prevent any sort of large scale land invasion, simply due to sheer expense and logistical difficulty faced by any invading force. Even if we had 1/10th of the military capabilities that we currently do, our geographical advantage would still keep us safe from anything conventional, short of strategic weapons. BUT, especially concerning where we are as a nation and as a society at the moment, it wouldn't take a lot of knock the nation off balance and cause it to backpedal. We are HEAVILY dependent on China's imports of manufactured goods and raw materials. We are almost completely dependent on Taiwan's export of technology. We have so much societal and political infighting that we wouldn't be able to pull our heads out of our ***** until an aggressor already achieved much of their goals. China has stated that they will reunify China and Taiwan, I forget when, but I think the deadline set was by 2050. It was explicitly stated that they will do so by political means, and if that fails, they will take it by military force. Looking at china's population growth numbers, they just hit the downhill slide for population growth, which means that they are now shrinking. They should hit their "Peak" of fighting and economic capability sometime between 2027 and 2035, but likely would choose to make something happen earlier, so that they can time the conflict to peak before they start degrading too much. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/[/URL] While the US is a big influence over the pacific, and between us and our allies, we keep China in relative check out there, we have some biiiig holes in our force projection: Our fleet is aging, and shrinking. This isn't just Joe's fault, its been the fault of several of our previous presidents. According to the most recent congressional report/naval shipbuilding plan, the US navy plans on reducing the number of ships, and "eventually" expanding its missile capability by increasing the number of missiles deployed in the fleet. But we're not doing these things at the same time, we're downgrading right now, and sometime in the next 10 years we're upgrading. We wont be back to 300ish ships until mid 2050s. So between now and 2035ish there's a major lull in US naval firepower and numbers. We're better than China from a military and technology standpoint, but they have a serious numbers advantage. In there lies the problem: a smaller, technologically superior fleet likely won't defeat a much larger fleet: and with the possible the exception of three cases in the past 1,200 years, nobody has. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chinas-navy-will-be-worlds-largest-2035[/URL] [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58745[/URL] We don't have any long range, conventional strike land based capabilities in the pacific. Yeah, we have SSBN's, carrier strike groups, and aircraft we can deploy all over the world, but we don't have anything that proves to be a set in place, strategic headache to the Chinese. We're one dimensional. Essentially, if they can keep the US from using nuclear weapons, they can stomp around the pacific without any major concerns. Not only do we not have anything in the pacific, but our allies don't want them either. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-10/pentagon-to-build-up-missiles-in-western-pacific-to-combat-chinas-expansion[/URL] Well, why would we need to worry about that, when we can just cut off the straight of Malacca? Well, realistically we cannot. China has fortified the area through building numerous bases, and establishing relationships with most of the countries in the area, and also has built up massive backup plans to keep goods flowing on land through their silk road initiative. (super cool article by the way) [URL='https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/08/asia/south-china-sea/']Inside the battle for the South China Sea[/URL] [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/china-new-silk-road-explainer/[/URL] There has been Talk of China aspiring to be the dominant power in the world, unseating the US from its role. it has already worked towards establishing the yen as the currency for oil, and pushes harder to be the leader in economic activity through the world. Without being able to project our nations ideas and values onto the world via economic power, the US will possibly fall by the wayside. Suddenly a US passport isn't the thing to have when travelling, it will be a Chinese passport. I think this is extremely doubtful, and unlikely even if they gain a stranglehold on the oil market through the adoption of the yen, but still.. Interesting thing to consider. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/what-kind-superpower-will-china-be/616580/[/URL] [URL unfurl="true"]https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/22/china-has-two-paths-to-global-domination-pub-81908[/URL] A four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, earlier in 2023, [URL='https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967']predicted[/URL] the US would be at war with China in two years and told them to get ready to prepare by firing “a clip” at a target and “aim for the head.” In a memo, General Minihan said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me (we) will fight in 2025.” Minihan noted in the memo that because Taiwan and the US will have presidential elections in 2024, the US will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity [URL='https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-taiwan-us-defense-spending-bill-rcna63221']to move on to Taiwan[/URL]. The poking at our sovereignty has already begun, just look at the Chinese completely ignoring our agreements to reduce cyber attacks, that weather balloon fiasco, or just a few days ago a fleet of Chinese and Russian ships were found off the coast of Alaska. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/us-deployed-warships-after-china-russia-naval-patrol-near-alaska-wsj[/URL] [B]What does the all have to do with prepping?![/B] As a nation, we are vulnerable. We have an opponent who sees that, exploits that, and has goals that we stand in the way of. A small invasion of 30-40,000 militants through our borders and waging a guerilla war on our infrastructure would not only be crippling, but it would inflame the divides we already have in our country. This could tie up manpower resources (military, manufacturing, etc) in trying to keep things together on the home front, thus giving China a larger advantage to accomplish what they desire in the Pacific and Middle East. They don't have to win, they just need the US to go from chasing its tail, to getting kicked around while it is chasing its tail. If this unorthodox invasion were to happen, and 40,000ish recently immigrated Chinese men took up arms within the United States and started raising hell; while the Chinese mainland ramped up cyber attacks on our infrastructure and got pushy in their corner of the pacific, cut off US goods, and retook Taiwan; how would that affect us on the home front? What would you do to prepare? What does that look like for you? Lets say nothing physical happened in our own backyard, and we just had to deal with the usual Chinese Cyberattacks, manufacturing getting cut off, and a war being waged elsewhere in the world. how would that affect us on the home front? What would you do to prepare? What does that look like for you? Last thought that I have, is how would this mimic WWII? Would there be "internment camps"? More persecution of Asian American citizens due to fear? Thoughts on this? I just think of how my buddy is married to a Chinese woman who is a US citizen, and how his wife and kids were threatened and berated in public during Covid, and even followed home. I imagine things would be much worse for people like this in the case of a full blown war. [/QUOTE]
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