Even though TSI doesn't change a whole lot with sunspot numbers, saying that the sun going into a period of no sunspots is "nothing to see here" seems overly dismissive. Are you familiar with Svensmark's work? If you are, then it certainly isn't "nothing to see here".
'Mini ice age' coming in next fifteen years, new model of the Sun's cycle shows
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Even though TSI doesn't change a whole lot with sunspot numbers, saying that the sun going into a period of no sunspots is "nothing to see here" seems overly dismissive. Are you familiar with Svensmark's work? If you are, then it certainly isn't "nothing to see here".
No, but I'd love a link.
And I may well have been overly dismissive to people who know what a sunspot is, but the original article really does fall wide of the mark.
I couldn't find any published manuscript about the current work, so I emailed the author of the study to see if they have anything ready to share yet. I'll share whatever she sends me.
This is the most recent work of theirs that I have seen: http://m.iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/795/1/46/pdf/0004-637X_795_1_46.pdf
Yeah, I saw that. I'd be surprised if their current work is out yet, unless their conference publishes papers.
She replied:
You can have a look at our papers published so far:
1. This paper is underway in Nature Scientific Reports (to be published soon) we also predict solar activity for 2000 years (1000 backwards and 1000 forward) which fit rather closely all the known features (Maunder and Dalton minima, medieval warmth period, modern warms period etc).
2. Shepherd et al, ApJ 2014 - we proposed the new proxy of solar activity - PCs of background magnetic field, and predicted the solar cycles up to cycle 26
http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/shepherd_etal_apj14_795_1_46.pdf
3. Popova et al, AnnGeo 2013 - developed two layer dynamo model describing these principal components
http://www.ann-geophys.net/31/2023/2013/angeo-31-2023-2013.html
4. Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS - applied Principal Component Analysis to reduce the dimensionality of solar background magnetic field variations in time and in latitude (I can send you a pdf file if you do not have a MNRAS subscription).
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MNRAS.424.2943Z.
Valentina Zharkova
Prof. of Mathematics
Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences
Faculty of Engineering and Environment
Northumbria University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE2 1XE
UK
You can have a look at our papers published so far:
1. This paper is underway in Nature Scientific Reports (to be published soon) we also predict solar activity for 2000 years (1000 backwards and 1000 forward) which fit rather closely all the known features (Maunder and Dalton minima, medieval warmth period, modern warms period etc).
2. Shepherd et al, ApJ 2014 - we proposed the new proxy of solar activity - PCs of background magnetic field, and predicted the solar cycles up to cycle 26
http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/shepherd_etal_apj14_795_1_46.pdf
3. Popova et al, AnnGeo 2013 - developed two layer dynamo model describing these principal components
http://www.ann-geophys.net/31/2023/2013/angeo-31-2023-2013.html
4. Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS - applied Principal Component Analysis to reduce the dimensionality of solar background magnetic field variations in time and in latitude (I can send you a pdf file if you do not have a MNRAS subscription).
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MNRAS.424.2943Z.
Valentina Zharkova
Prof. of Mathematics
Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences
Faculty of Engineering and Environment
Northumbria University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE2 1XE
UK
I am not a scientist or an engineer but this whole discussion reminds me of many long conversations I had when I was the "3"/Operations Officer for a USAF Wing that happened to own, among other assets, the USAF's combat weathermen. The ones on staff who were experts in space weather tended to believe that the "terrestrial" climatologists made the twin errors of understating the effect of solar cycles (or solar activity in general) on Earth's climate and over-estimating the impacts of man's activities on the Earth's climate. Nothing was ever settled in those discussions but that was in the day before the current reigning theory of man's effect upon the global climate became "settled science"
