Iran is a non-player in OPEC. I don't see oil going anywhere with the current sanctions if they evaporated. China and others would just look elsewhere.
Israel is just prepping for the day when their inside folks tell them the nuke weapons have been developed, and you can be assured they have the weapons to defeat the physical locations.
Price of oil has never had much to do with supply/demand but rather speculation. Hell you will pay an extra dime when someone draws a picture of Muhammad. I agree lifting sanctions won't move it but if Israel hits Iran especially with Saudi support, I think the fireworks will be impressive. Even Turkey, a NATO member is moving toward an Islamist stance. It would be worth a beer bet over how long it takes for a regional war to break out (outside of the one going on now).