Since we have a lot of veterans here, I thought this was germane.
WASHINGTON (Dec. 4) -- After nearly a year of speeches, hearings, surveys, report writing and yet more hearings, time is running out for the forces that want to repeal the Pentagon's "don't ask, don't tell" policy.
Depending on whom you ask, there are now enough votes in the Senate to head off a Republican filibuster and end the 17-year policy that keeps gay and lesbian service members in the closet. Or maybe there aren't. Republicans say it doesn't matter how you count the votes: There are more pressing matters to deal with in what little time is left of the lame-duck Congress.
As the Senate prepared to convene this morning to vote on middle-class tax cuts, Republicans vowed to block action on "don't ask, don't tell" and other controversial legislation until that and bills to fund the government are addressed.
And if Sen. John McCain, the leading opponent of repeal, has his way, there will be more hearings -- next year. During two days of testimony by the top civilian and uniformed leaders at the Pentagon, McCain fought a rear-guard action against a growing public consensus, saying he needed more information. The Arizona senator called for the senior enlisted people of the services as well as commanding generals from far and wide to appear for more hearings.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, however, said he has heard and read enough. He will soon huddle with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to talk strategy and timing for the measure, which is part of a larger defense authorization bill.
Since 1990, the Senate has spent as long as 10 days and as little as one to debate the annual measure, with an average of 12 amendment votes per year. Democrats say there is time to do it, although the bill isn't on the schedule yet. Still, a senior Democratic aide said it remains high on the to-do list before Republicans take over the House next month. "We do intend to try and pass the bill with [don't ask, don't tell] included," he said.
Republicans, buoyed by Friday's sickly unemployment numbers, say they won't deal with anything other than the economy.
"Why are we wasting time with this issue?" asked McCain, who also has pummeled repeal because of some resistance from combat troops and the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Sen. McCain has been so all over the map on 'don't ask, don't tell' that we need an atlas to keep track of his positions," said Reid spokesman Jim Manley. "Now he's telling us he won't do what our military leadership has urged Congress to do because of the economy? If Sen. McCain truly cared about the economy, he could start by getting his Republican colleagues to stop holding middle-class tax cuts hostage to giveaways for millionaires and CEOs."
Vote Counting
Assuming Reid finds time for the defense bill, opinions vary on whether there are 60 votes to break a filibuster.
Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut independent leading the repeal effort, has said he is confident there are enough votes to overcome his good friend McCain's vow to block action this year. He says several Republicans are privately on board as long as they remain convinced "the Democratic leadership will not jam the bill through, but allow a reasonable time for fair and open debate."
Vote counters at gay-rights advocacy groups say if a deal can be struck with two Republican moderates, they will get all 58 Democratic and both independent senators to break a GOP logjam.
They got their first GOP vote shortly after Friday's Pentagon hearing when Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown threw his support to repeal.
Now all eyes are on Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. The moderate Republican has said she favors repeal but has withheld her vote amid procedural concerns.
If those concerns can't be addressed, Levin and other Democratic leaders will try to convince other socially moderate Republicans to join them. Among the most likely targets: Olympia Snowe of Maine, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski, Indiana's Richard Lugar and retiring Sens. George Voinovich of Ohio and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire.
If a deal can't be struck, Democratic centrists such as Mark Pryor of Arkansas and newly elected Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia may bolt to preserve their 2012 re-election prospects among conservative voters back home. By then, however, the outcome will be moot as the issue will die for this session.
"The time constraints of the lame-duck session remain a problem, but there is certainly still a chance that this can get done in the next two weeks," said Alexander Nicholson, a former Army interrogator who heads the gay advocacy group Servicemembers United. "If Sen. Reid moves to reconsider the defense authorization bill early next week, and if he allows for a fair and reasonable debate this time around, we have the votes to win this."
Ross Baker, a longtime congressional observer at Rutgers University, isn't so sure. He says opposition from the heads of the Air Force and Marine Corps gives senators cover to delay.
"It will not happen in the 111th Congress or the 112th," he predicted. "The first chance will be in the 113th [in 2013], but don't expect it to be shoo-in unless [President Barack] Obama is re-elected with a sizable Democratic majority."
Another congressional expert, Norman Ornstein of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, disagrees.
"I think there will be a push to get a vote, not least because the Democrats can't afford not to -- their base is already pissed about Afghanistan, taxes ... and they have the impetus from the study," he said. "But it is complicated by the filibuster-everything strategy of [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell and by the need to get the defense authorization bill. So I expect the issue to come up for a vote, and even if it fails, to re-emerge early next year."
WASHINGTON (Dec. 4) -- After nearly a year of speeches, hearings, surveys, report writing and yet more hearings, time is running out for the forces that want to repeal the Pentagon's "don't ask, don't tell" policy.
Depending on whom you ask, there are now enough votes in the Senate to head off a Republican filibuster and end the 17-year policy that keeps gay and lesbian service members in the closet. Or maybe there aren't. Republicans say it doesn't matter how you count the votes: There are more pressing matters to deal with in what little time is left of the lame-duck Congress.
As the Senate prepared to convene this morning to vote on middle-class tax cuts, Republicans vowed to block action on "don't ask, don't tell" and other controversial legislation until that and bills to fund the government are addressed.
And if Sen. John McCain, the leading opponent of repeal, has his way, there will be more hearings -- next year. During two days of testimony by the top civilian and uniformed leaders at the Pentagon, McCain fought a rear-guard action against a growing public consensus, saying he needed more information. The Arizona senator called for the senior enlisted people of the services as well as commanding generals from far and wide to appear for more hearings.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, however, said he has heard and read enough. He will soon huddle with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to talk strategy and timing for the measure, which is part of a larger defense authorization bill.
Since 1990, the Senate has spent as long as 10 days and as little as one to debate the annual measure, with an average of 12 amendment votes per year. Democrats say there is time to do it, although the bill isn't on the schedule yet. Still, a senior Democratic aide said it remains high on the to-do list before Republicans take over the House next month. "We do intend to try and pass the bill with [don't ask, don't tell] included," he said.
Republicans, buoyed by Friday's sickly unemployment numbers, say they won't deal with anything other than the economy.
"Why are we wasting time with this issue?" asked McCain, who also has pummeled repeal because of some resistance from combat troops and the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Sen. McCain has been so all over the map on 'don't ask, don't tell' that we need an atlas to keep track of his positions," said Reid spokesman Jim Manley. "Now he's telling us he won't do what our military leadership has urged Congress to do because of the economy? If Sen. McCain truly cared about the economy, he could start by getting his Republican colleagues to stop holding middle-class tax cuts hostage to giveaways for millionaires and CEOs."
Vote Counting
Assuming Reid finds time for the defense bill, opinions vary on whether there are 60 votes to break a filibuster.
Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut independent leading the repeal effort, has said he is confident there are enough votes to overcome his good friend McCain's vow to block action this year. He says several Republicans are privately on board as long as they remain convinced "the Democratic leadership will not jam the bill through, but allow a reasonable time for fair and open debate."
Vote counters at gay-rights advocacy groups say if a deal can be struck with two Republican moderates, they will get all 58 Democratic and both independent senators to break a GOP logjam.
They got their first GOP vote shortly after Friday's Pentagon hearing when Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown threw his support to repeal.
Now all eyes are on Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. The moderate Republican has said she favors repeal but has withheld her vote amid procedural concerns.
If those concerns can't be addressed, Levin and other Democratic leaders will try to convince other socially moderate Republicans to join them. Among the most likely targets: Olympia Snowe of Maine, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski, Indiana's Richard Lugar and retiring Sens. George Voinovich of Ohio and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire.
If a deal can't be struck, Democratic centrists such as Mark Pryor of Arkansas and newly elected Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia may bolt to preserve their 2012 re-election prospects among conservative voters back home. By then, however, the outcome will be moot as the issue will die for this session.
"The time constraints of the lame-duck session remain a problem, but there is certainly still a chance that this can get done in the next two weeks," said Alexander Nicholson, a former Army interrogator who heads the gay advocacy group Servicemembers United. "If Sen. Reid moves to reconsider the defense authorization bill early next week, and if he allows for a fair and reasonable debate this time around, we have the votes to win this."
Ross Baker, a longtime congressional observer at Rutgers University, isn't so sure. He says opposition from the heads of the Air Force and Marine Corps gives senators cover to delay.
"It will not happen in the 111th Congress or the 112th," he predicted. "The first chance will be in the 113th [in 2013], but don't expect it to be shoo-in unless [President Barack] Obama is re-elected with a sizable Democratic majority."
Another congressional expert, Norman Ornstein of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, disagrees.
"I think there will be a push to get a vote, not least because the Democrats can't afford not to -- their base is already pissed about Afghanistan, taxes ... and they have the impetus from the study," he said. "But it is complicated by the filibuster-everything strategy of [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell and by the need to get the defense authorization bill. So I expect the issue to come up for a vote, and even if it fails, to re-emerge early next year."
