Odds From Las Vegas

[CHenry]

Odds From Las Vegas - Interesting & I hope he's right

DIRECT FROM CAESAR’S PALACE

A Las Vegas "odds maker" gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November.
Interesting analysis.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are
either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.
I amneither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year's Predictions. I predicted back then - before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor fromRick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt - that Romney would easily rout hiscompetition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now - and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for Obama.

**Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This is not good news for Obama.

**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt; my friends didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

**Suburban moms. The issue isn't about contraception, it's having a job to pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children's future. This is not good news for Obama.

**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn't vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him today? Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman, tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

 

[Aguyandaredhead]

It's a shame that every one of us who wants the administration to change does not have a vote that counts. My point it, no individual in the US voting for the office if prez is actually casting a vote that is counted. I love this country, however, until the electoral college is reformed we will never have a say as the people! And think about it, we are a country with a government formed of the people ruling. It's sad, the gov has gotten so big we can no longer make a change without some form (non-violent preferred) of revolution.

Just my two cents!

 

[71buickfreak]

I can certainly see romney winning, but only if the people vote. A lot of people will simply not vote this time around.

 

[soonersfan]

Are there actually some odds on who will win or just an opinion by an "odds maker?"

 

[Popjim]

We need to pray for our country.

 

[mugsy]

It's a shame that every one of us who wants the administration to change does not have a vote that counts. My point it, no individual in the US voting for the office if prez is actually casting a vote that is counted. I love this country, however, until the electoral college is reformed we will never have a say as the people! And think about it, we are a country with a government formed of the people ruling. It's sad, the gov has gotten so big we can no longer make a change without some form (non-violent preferred) of revolution.

Just my two cents!

The whole point of the electoral college is to prevent the "passions of the people" from running amok by creating an indirect election. Your vote still counts but is it filtered. This country was designed to preserve Liberty by preventing any one group, including an electoral majority, from running roughshod over the rights of others by sheer weight of numbers - until such time as the numbers become so overwhelming that the end result is inevitable anyway.

No, I support the electoral college and, frankly, would overturn the 17th Amendment to return the election of Senators to the state legislatures. The 17th Amendment has done more damage to the Federal system than any other single act of law.

 

[DA 20]

It's a shame that every one of us who wants the administration to change does not have a vote that counts. My point it, no individual in the US voting for the office if prez is actually casting a vote that is counted. I love this country, however, until the electoral college is reformed we will never have a say as the people! And think about it, we are a country with a government formed of the people ruling. It's sad, the gov has gotten so big we can no longer make a change without some form (non-violent preferred) of revolution.

Just my two cents!

I support the electoral college because with out it the large states would elect the President. Check this web site and you wil see the winner of the electoral college also won the poplar vote almost every time. http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/scores.html#1964

Edited to correct sentence.

 

[Aguyandaredhead]

Since we are on the subject or odds, check out this blog.. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

He is not a political analyst either.. But a mathematician (statistics genius) who doesn't use one poll but all of them and then posts the prediction. He has a scary accurate history.

Five thirty eight, being the total number of electoral votes..