Stock Market… this isn’t good IMO

[SlugSlinger]

It’s true though same information can be found lots of places, I keep wondering how much lower we can go, and I am pretty sure the next decade will trade sideways more or less once the downturn ends

You could be right. They will call it the lost decade, just like what happen to Japan in the ‘80s.
The thing I don’t get is there are a lot of people that are oblivious to the macro economics that are unfolding with really no good way out. The Fed raising rates is killing the economy and shuttering other countries holding debt in dollars. The UN is demanding the us stop raising rates. If the rates stop increasing, we will see hyperinflation. There is no way out of this monetary debacle cause be the fed.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Did a partial withdrawal of my TSP today, tired of them losing my money so I’m going to blow it all!

Is that a penalty free withdrawal?

 

[emapples]

You could be right. They will call it the lost decade, just like what happen to Japan in the ‘80s.
The thing I don’t get is there are a lot of people that are oblivious to the macro economics that are unfolding with really no good way out. The Fed raising rates is killing the economy and shuttering other countries holding debt in dollars. The UN is demanding the us stop raising rates. If the rates stop increasing, we will see hyperinflation. There is no way out of this monetary debacle cause be the fed.

I don‘t think people realize food inflation is still going strong. What I cant understand is why the dollar has been on so insanely strong agonist everyone it proves how bad it really is everywhere else.

 

[Shadowrider]

What I cant understand is why the dollar has been on so insanely strong agonist everyone it proves how bad it really is everywhere else.

It may or may not figure in (probably not) but I just read an article that's produced from one of my work's websites. They do very in depth full time energy analysis worldwide and publish weekly reports on various happenings. I haven't had access to these reports for too terribly long and they are full of industry terminology and acronyms but I'm getting better at reading them. It's really a struggle sometimes keeping my interest, the authors are a lot more woke than you would think being in energy which is vastly dominated by oil, gas and coal. I can't post it because it's behind a paywall.

Today's was chock full of what is going on with green energy abroad. I knew it was bad but I had no clue as to the extent Europe is brainwashed. Germany and several other countries are apparently planning on using battery storage for power when wind and solar output won't keep up demand. This is also being used as a strategy to minimize transmission line expansion. The gist of it sounds like they are doing exactly what they said they would and are planning on shuttering all their thermal generation plants regardless of fuel used.

To my mind, this is madness. We are trailing a long ways behind in the U.S. and besides, we are a few generations from electrical generation being viable with "alternative" means on a scale remotely close to what's needed. The fact that we are so behind the curve on green energy wokeness actually makes us much stronger, IMO...

 

[Duncandl]

Is that a penalty free withdrawal?

Of course not, but it is still less than every person I know that has told me how much they lost this year. I moved everything into cash last fall and forgot about it.

I wasn’t losing any money but inflation and my bills not going down make me feel as good as I can about what my money is doing for me right now. I’m contemplating a life of as little credit as possible without becoming too miserable. I do not encourage these drastic measures but being a disabled vet drawing more than enough from the VA coupled with my military retirement and looming civil service retirement made the decision more palatable for this guy.

Marrying “well” hasn’t hurt either, it is my attempt at equal opportunity…

 

[SlugSlinger]

Well, this isn't good. The FED doesn't seem to be making much progress with the fastest rate increases in history. They aren't letting the results catch up with the rate changes. At some point the dam will break and the economic disaster will look like a tsunami. They are aiming for a collapse, nothing else will stop the damage they are inflicting to the economy. There are only two results at this point; economic collapse or hyperinflation. What poison will they chose?
Much more pain to come!

US Hiring Remains Solid, With Employers Adding 263,000 Jobs
Friday, 07 October 2022 08:39 AM EDT

America’s employers slowed their hiring in September but still added a solid 263,000 jobs — a dose of encouraging news that may mean the Federal Reserve’s drive to cool the job market and ease inflation is starting to make progress.

Friday’s government report showed that last month’s job growth was down from 315,000 in August and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

September’s more moderate pace of hiring may be welcomed by the Fed, which is trying to restrain the economy enough to tame the worst inflation in four decades without causing a recession. Slower job growth would mean less pressure on employers to raise pay and pass those costs on to their customers through price increases — a recipe for high inflation.

The public anxiety that has arisen over high prices and the prospect of a recession is also carrying political consequences as President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party struggles to maintain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.

In its epic battle to rein in inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five times this year. It is aiming to slow economic growth enough to reduce annual price increases back toward its 2% target.

It has a long way to go. In August, one key measure of year-over-year inflation, the consumer price index, amounted to 8.3%. And for now, consumer spending – the primary driver of the U.S. economy – is showing some resilience. In August, consumers spent a bit more than in July, a sign that the economy was holding up despite rising borrowing rates, violent swings in the stock market and inflated prices for food, rent and other essentials.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned bluntly that the inflation fight will “bring some pain,” notably in the form of layoffs and higher unemployment. Some economists remain hopeful that despite the persistent inflation pressures, the Fed will still manage to achieve a so-called soft landing: Slowing growth enough to tame inflation, without going so far as to tip the economy into recession.

It’s a notoriously difficult task. And the Fed is trying to accomplish it at a perilous time. The global economy, weakened by food shortages and surging energy prices resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine, may be on the brink of recession. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned Thursday that the IMF is downgrading its estimates for world economic growth by $4 trillion through 2026 and that “things are more likely to get worse before it gets better.’’

Powell and his colleagues on the Fed’s policymaking committee want to see signs that the abundance of available jobs — there’s currently an average of 1.7 openings for every unemployed American — will steadily decline. Some encouraging news came this week, when the Labor Department reported that job openings fell by 1.1 million in August to 10.1 million, the fewest since June 2021.

Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, suggested that among the items on “the soft-landing flight checklist’’ is “a decline in job openings without a spike in the unemployment rate, and that’s what we’ve seen the last few months.”

On the other hand, by any standard of history, openings remain extraordinarily high: In records dating to 2000, they had never topped 10 million in a month until last year.

Economist Daniel Zhao of the jobs website Glassdoor argued that a single-minded focus on the job market might be overdone. Regardless of what happens with jobs and wages, Zhao suggested, the Fed’s policymakers won’t likely let up on their rate-hike campaign until they see proof that they’re actually hitting their target.

“They want to see inflation slowing down,” he said.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/economy-jobs-report-u-s-labor-market/2022/10/07/id/1090875/

 

[SlugSlinger]

It may or may not figure in (probably not) but I just read an article that's produced from one of my work's websites. They do very in depth full time energy analysis worldwide and publish weekly reports on various happenings. I haven't had access to these reports for too terribly long and they are full of industry terminology and acronyms but I'm getting better at reading them. It's really a struggle sometimes keeping my interest, the authors are a lot more woke than you would think being in energy which is vastly dominated by oil, gas and coal. I can't post it because it's behind a paywall.

Today's was chock full of what is going on with green energy abroad. I knew it was bad but I had no clue as to the extent Europe is brainwashed. Germany and several other countries are apparently planning on using battery storage for power when wind and solar output won't keep up demand. This is also being used as a strategy to minimize transmission line expansion. The gist of it sounds like they are doing exactly what they said they would and are planning on shuttering all their thermal generation plants regardless of fuel used.

To my mind, this is madness. We are trailing a long ways behind in the U.S. and besides, we are a few generations from electrical generation being viable with "alternative" means on a scale remotely close to what's needed. The fact that we are so behind the curve on green energy wokeness actually makes us much stronger, IMO...

What I find amusing is the Germans have declared natural gas a green energy.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Oh, and OPEC with Russia have agreed to reduce oil output by 2 million barrels per day.

 

[SlugSlinger]

Equity Funds See Vast Outflows on Rate Hike Angst

Friday, 07 October 2022 08:10 AM EDT

U.S. equity funds recorded a surge in outflows in the week to Oct. 5, as reports showing firm labor market demand and persistent core inflation stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates.

Investors sold U.S. equity funds worth a net $7.09 billion after disposing of a net $4.63 billion in the previous week, data from Refinitiv Lipper showed.

During the reported week, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data showed a rise of 0.3% in August, after dipping 0.1% in July. A report showing that employment surged in September also raised expectations of more hikes.]

Investors were also cautiously awaiting a closely watched monthly nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday.

U.S. growth funds suffered $8.62 billion worth of net selling, the biggest weekly outflow since Jan 26, while value funds recorded withdrawals worth $1.3 billion.

Among U.S. sector funds, investors exited health care and financials funds worth $733 million and $224 million respectively but purchased consumer discretionary funds of $331 million.

Meanwhile, bond fund outflows eased to a three-week low of $908 million, the data showed.

Investors purchased high yield funds of $2.62 billion after six weeks of selling in a row, although short/intermediate investment-grade and loan participation funds recorded disposals of $3.13 billion and $1.07 billion respectively.

U.S. government bond funds remained in demand for a sixth straight week, securing a net $4.88 billion.

Meanwhile, investors drew $16.57 billion out of money market funds after two straight weeks of net buying.

 

[JD8]

There were some great buys to be had today. Got a couple good ones.

I dunno if there are any "great" buys right now and I'm usually the sunshine pumper around here when it comes to stocks. It just doesn't look good until Biden is out of office. He hates energy for starters.... and the government keeps trying to pump up the economy before the midterms. The data showing the effects of the last rate increase will lag a few months. Just not seeing it. Even if you have a 5-10 scope. Just sitting on the sideline with cash for now.