Official OSA COVID-19/Corona Virus Thread

[tRidiot]

Ok... but how does that figure into testing sick people? Don't symptoms determine who gets tested?

Absolutely. Unless you test everyone in a population, you have a selection bias to some degree.

For example, we don't do heart caths on 25 y/o healthy folks. Of course, in a world of perfect medical access, we could do non-invasive 100% accurate testing at a low cost on 100% of the population for everything.

Let's put it this way - if we did colonoscopies on every adult American every year, our incidence of colon cancer would be nearly zero - because colonoscopies can prevent colon cancer. But we only screen people over 50 (45 now in some instances) or those who have a family history or have some kind of symptoms that make us suspicious. So we have a selection bias.

Testing everyone in a given population eliminates that and gives you 'ideal' numbers - but it's usually at a horrendous expense and effort to do so. You have to use your resources in the smartest way possible. Therefore, when you're dealing with testing large numbers of people in different geographic areas there are lots of variables that will skew the numbers one way or another and you're not truly comparing apples to apples. Or at best, maybe Granny Smiths to Red Delicious to Fujis.

 

[MacFromOK]

Thanks guys.

So do y'all think the selection bias is that much different between TX and OK?

Or is it strictly the numbers, even though OK has tested a larger percentage of our population than TX has?

 

[tRidiot]

Thanks guys.

So do y'all think the selection bias is that much different between TX and OK?

Or is it strictly the numbers, even though OK has tested a larger percentage of our population than TX has?

It's hard to say - the methodology and availability and various other factors, like where you're testing (inner city/urban vs rural, small town, etc.). It's really impossible to draw valid conclusions, just a ton of speculation.

 

[MacFromOK]

It's hard to say - the methodology and availability and various other factors, like where you're testing (inner city/urban vs rural, small town, etc.). It's really impossible to draw valid conclusions, just a ton of speculation.

Huh.

So it's kinda like studies with no control group... :/

 

[tRidiot]

Huh.

So it's kinda like studies with no control group... :/

That is exactly right, although we still have selection bias even in controlled double-blinded studies. There's always some kind of bias, the trick in interpreting all these studies is just knowing how to recognize the errors that are present in ALL of them and take them all with a grain of salt.

I get drug reps coming in one after another touting their studies about different drugs all in the same class, all talking about how their studies prove this one is the best and I need to convince my patients they need to spend all this money to get it. Now the diabetic drugs are getting indications for cardiovascular risk reduction and we have Cardiologists prescribing them for patients who aren't diabetic.

I think Biostatistics was the only class I had Honors in in school, and I freaking hated it. It's just such BS.

Lies
Damned Lies
& Statistics

 

[Okie4570]

Huh.

So it's kinda like studies with no control group... :/

Exactly, kind of like saying humans are causing global warming without a control Earth to compare to.....................

 

[DRC458]

OSDH daily release

SITUATION UPDATE: COVID-19

• As of this advisory, there are 2,184 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in Oklahoma.
• There are nine additional deaths:
  • One in Tulsa County, a female in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Major County, a female in the 18-35 age group.
  • One in Mayes County, a male in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Pittsburg County, a male in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Pontotoc County, a male in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Rogers County, a male in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Wagoner County, a female in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Washington County, a female in the 65 and older age group.
  • One in Osage County, a female in the 65 and older age group.
• There are 108 total deaths in the state.
• The Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) has established a task force, including nurses and epidemiologists, to work with long term care facilities through onsite consultation, assessment and training to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 in facilities. The agency also is distributing shipments of personal protective equipment (PPE) to facilities.
• OSDH continues to work with hospitals to prepare for a surge to the medical system in the coming weeks.
• For more information, visit coronavirus.health.ok.gov.

COVID-19 Oklahoma Test Results
Confirmed Positive Cases 2,184
*Total Cumulative Negative Specimens 26,085
*Total Cumulative Number of Specimens to Date 28,225
Total Cumulative Hospitalizations 488
Deaths 108


*The total includes laboratory information provided to OSDH at the time of the report. Total counts may not reflect unique individuals.

Data Source: Acute Disease Service, Oklahoma State Department of Health.
*As of 2020-04-14 at 7:00 a.m.

Detailed case statistics are published on the website. Click here for more information.
###

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[MacFromOK]

The death rate is going up (4.9%) by those figures. :/

 

[O4L]

The death rate is going up (4.9%) by those figures. :/

And the death rate of those hospitalized is 22%.

 

[Shadowrider]

The death rate is going up (4.9%) by those figures. :/

Here's another way to view it. By those numbers 488 people have been hospitalized and 108 have died. That's a 22% mortality rate. See how that worked?

ETA: Dang. How'd I miss O4L's post?