Yes, that does seem more probable - I just have to wonder, though - as the military has shrunk active duty forces and increased reliance on reserves and national guard it might make for an even more interesting scenario than it was some years ago, especially as regards the current administration's ability to "federalize" state troops and whether (or how) they'd respond.
I don't think they would go. I think it would be more interesting to speculate on how well the DHS will stick together. While we are downsizing the military the DHS is growing and becoming more militarized in the process.