weren't those models predicting that if nothing changed?
weren't those models predicting that if nothing changed?
Modeling from a Baptist University in Honk Kong.........I think I'll take that one with a grain of salt.
In defense of the mask "model" above....Do not lump all models together....some are complicated: this one is not
Some involve lots of assumptions: this one appears to be based on few assumptions. To my understanding it is based on mask efficiency in preventing virus size particles from getting through and on an estimated time of close contact between people in the population.
If you don't like climate change models..I get that big time: too many variables. You are skeptical about the epidemic model/flattening the curve model...This mask model is not based on scientific guessing about human behavior anywhere near to the extent that the epidemic model was. It is a simple, two factor model. Simple is good when it comes to models and many other things. I think the model is a reliable and good estimation of effects tool.
Some involve lots of assumptions: this one appears to be based on few assumptions. To my understanding it is based on mask efficiency in preventing virus size particles from getting through and on an estimated time of close contact between people in the population.
If you don't like climate change models..I get that big time: too many variables. You are skeptical about the epidemic model/flattening the curve model...This mask model is not based on scientific guessing about human behavior anywhere near to the extent that the epidemic model was. It is a simple, two factor model. Simple is good when it comes to models and many other things. I think the model is a reliable and good estimation of effects tool.
I think any model is only good if the data put in for analysis is correct and valid. For instance, if we REALLY don't know what China's numbers are, or if we are getting numbers that include people that haven't tested positive, then I'd guess the models would be inaccurate.
Some models are like statistics...
...some skew the models to get the results that they want.
or that we expect a model to be right, even after parameters change. Especially as it relates to human behavior. Saying that X will happen and then having each state implement different measures of social distancing is hard to account for ahead of time.
No kiddin'. And possibly the most unpredictable factor in the whole shebang is human behavior itself... :/
Yeah, absolutely. I like the humans, but I don't trust them....
Because wearing a mask makes it harder to talk--and be understood--I find I am talking to people even less than usual for me, which is a damned good thing by my lights. I am quiet by nature, and even more so with a mask on. Wear it into the summer and beyond? Sure!
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